Author: patruff

Unreasonable Post

I have no reason to write. I had no preconception of what I “wanted” to write about. I’m basically forcing myself to write this. Why? It’s like a message in a bottle (good song by the Police), I’m just writing because…nothing? Writing is good? Writing in and of itself is a good thing. Writing is the equivalent of conscious thought and thought, even meandering or nonsensical, is good? I added the question marks because I’m not certain that just any writing is “good writing.” I actually think that most of life is sifting through the massive amounts of TRASH thought in order to find (if lucky) the good thinking or the “correct” thinking. What is good or correct? At the very least it could be logical thinking (1 + 1 = 2), if someone tries to say something like “1 + 1 is actually equal to 3″ then you know right then and there that it is wrong/trash/not worth your time. So applying logic is one great way to sift through the trash.

 

Another good way to find something worthy or correct or whatever would be to apply previous experience (empirical evidence). So if I start to watch a bad show or movie and it seems very similar to other bad shows or movies (again, objective logic is a good foundation), I can tell via induction that this will, most likely, be a bad show or movie. So while this is not hard evidence (like a clear violation of something) it can be a nuanced way of sifting through trash.

 

The first way (logic) is safe, but the 2nd way (a developed sense over time) is at least something that can be improved upon. Often, I read things or see things and QUICKLY lose interest, because I think my 2nd sense of feeling that this will be a waste of time is very strong. Maybe logically the person or book or game or whatever didn’t do anything wrong, but I can feel (subconsciously) that there’s something wrong.

 

I think this sort of gets at a larger topic which is your brain, biases, relying on feeling/emotion/”gut” instinct V. constructive thought, logic, etc. You obviously need both but I think that objective reality is “better” in so far as it is slower but higher in accuracy. Most of the time the tradeoff is such that you’re better off just reacting via instinct, but that’s sort of a trap. In situations you aren’t familiar with there is no built-up library or put another way the training data for your mental model is sparse and you are much more likely to react poorly. The counter to this thought is that it’s very hard to live objectively, even if you know you are biased/emtional/etc. you can only really mitigate this effect (but not eliminate it).

 

The best of both worlds (objective reality meets lived experience) works within the confines of leveraging instinct but having it balanced out by objective reality. I think of gamblers that are VERY good at calculating odds instinctively/based on years of experience, but even these gamblers will know that their ability to function is impaired when they drink too much or they are angry or any number of factors. Maybe the gambler makes a rule like “I will only drink 1 drink every 2 hours” or “after losing a big hand I walk away from the table” or any number of rules aimed to mitigate the effects of feeling. The other piece is that you should look at things objectively OVER TIME. So for example, you may FEEL that you aren’t losing weight or whatever your goal is, but if you measure it you might see a different story. Maybe you THINK/FEEL that your life is terrible, but actually analyze it based on the possible outcomes of what COULD HAVE been your life. Taking stock of things is very important and should be done every few months if not more frequently.

 

The final piece of advice would be to live as the Stoics do. No matter what has transpired before, just imagine your previous self as “some other person” and then imagine that this person is dead (like, they just died). Now think about who you WANT to be, in this moment. Then live that. It’s so much harder to do than to say, but the concept is sound. If you can de-identify with who you were and begin to identify with who-you-wish-to-be, then you’ll be able to start acting it out.

Who cares?

One thing that’s been in the back of my mind for a while now is “Who cares?” or “Who gives a flip?” when it comes to MANY things in life. You’re not supposed to care what others think but in almost any endeavor it DOES matter what others think (will you get funding? will you be judged favorably? how many likes will you get?). Essentially “the group” is always incredibly important, whether that’s the people in your neighborhood or your peers or colleagues or customers. You’re always dancing to the others’ tune OR, and this is a big OR (and it’s exclusive), it might be considered MEANINGLESS. You can define your own meaning (look up logotherapy) and honestly a lot of what you do will be local and won’t matter to anyone (like this website). But if what you are doing matters to YOU, that is the most important thing. Nobody can tell YOU what YOU should value or hold meaningful (actually, people can and will do this, but ultimately it’s up to you). I want to expand upon this and I think I will later but for now I think it’s important to know that almost everything you do won’t matter to the VAST MAJORITY of people. However, it will matter, to some. Locally you could be HUGE. Locally or within your small circle you might be the best X, which is nice.

You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know

I usually dislike truisms like this (hey reflexive property, x=x, wow, who knew), but in this case I think it’s interesting to look at the concept of insufficient information when problem solving (you know, what all of us do all our lives). You can never have “enough” information, and your mind is subjective, so what might be “good” or “enough” for you might be bad or insufficient for someone else.

 

Today I saw a pen on the floor. It was a pen that my son had opened and put the cap in his mouth (a choking hazard). The day before I had taken the cap and pen and put them out of reach of him. To see the pen on the floor amongst his toys made me upset and I immediately asked “Did you put the pen back?” or “Why did you put the pen back?” (in a snarly/angry tone) to my wife. In my mind, there were only 2 people that could have put the pen back, myself or my wife and I knew I didn’t put the pen back so I assumed she did. This was wrong. There was ANOTHER possibility, there was more information. In fact this was a pen identical to the pen from yesterday, there were 2 pens! It’s logical that however the first pen got among his toys this one did too. I hadn’t concerned that, based on my (limited) information, I had made the logical assessment.

 

This problem is a HUGE problem when scaled. WW1 is a great example. All of the major powers could claim they were acting “defensively” and that “if there was going to be a war, now was a logical time to do it” (well, maybe not Russia). My point is that acting logically, which is I agree the most sensible approach to life, doesn’t always give the best results, and ESPECIALLY not when information is limited. We all need to make decisions, and make them relatively quickly, but for BIG things (like long-term, life-changing decisions) it’s wise to gather A LOT of information to aid the decision.

 

Logic though is sort of a trap. It’s like, if humans were completely logical they would be very easy to predict/manipulate (more so then they already are). I think that’s part of the message of Dune. Machines, in their cold logic, destroy humanity since humans are static/predictable to a fault (their own destruction). The good thing about humans is that we have illogical local phenomenon that are based on logical long-term outcomes (i.e. natural selection). I might think something is a bad idea, like, I don’t want to have sex with anyone, it’s a hassle and it can be frustrating, etc. but biologically my body is saying “no, no, you WANT to do this and there will be chemical rewards if you do.” I will stop for now, but leave you (the reader) with the concept of incomplete information. What about your life could you add some more information to in order to produce more favorable results? What should you read up on? What ARE your big decisions?

15 Minutes And Your Post Is FREE

I only have 15 minutes before my daily stand-up. I challenge myself to write a post in that time.

This post will be about how understanding is more important than knowledge or almost anything else. As my Windows PC boots up I’m just emailing myself (to save time).

My thoughts are this, you can memorize things, you can “KNOW” something like (Einstein was a Jew), but I think understanding is more valuable and is also more contextual. Einstein was a Jew, true, but I understand that he didn’t believe in God per se, he believed in a “mover” or a “divinity” that followed an established set of rules. He believed in the God of Spinoza, a sort of “God is in everything” type of belief, not a “God is my personal savior and he told me not to have sex with other men.” So I think it’s really UNDERSTANDING that needs to be put forth. How can you show you understand? Well, I think it comes down to results. Like, if you UNDERSTAND how building muscle works and you want to prove it, then show it by building muscle. If you want to show that you understand operating systems, build one that can perform the various functions of an operating system. That’s a bit tricky though, in that you can create without understanding (children for example). Understanding another human being is fairly difficult but a worthy pursuit. One thing that really helps with understanding is TIME and THOUGHT and ACTION. If you think about something, then try something out, you can then look at the results. You might not understand, but at least you can say “I applied stimulus X for response Y” which is a whole lot better than ASSUMING X (without results).

In short, SCIENCE!

-Pat

How To Be a Successful Gambler

Don’t gamble. Congratulations, you are more successful than most gamblers. Now onto the meat after you have had your vegetables.

 

IF you gamble the best way to do it is 1) spend a lot more time planning than playing, 2) practice in situations where there are no “real” stakes so that when you are playing at a higher level you at least have some built-in, reflexive pathways in your brain built up, 3) only play when at your best (rested, not stressed, not burnt out, 100% fresh), 4) SET A LIMIT (as in, if I win this much I’ll walk away, or if I lose this much I’ll walk away), without this you can win big but then play sloppy and lose big too, 5) know the math (you can be expected value positive, as in, if I could make this move an infinite number of times I would be making money) and recognize that luck is a huge factor.

 

With 5 as long as you know you made the right move you can walk away proud, vice versa if you win off of bad odds (you should feel ashamed :P). I would write more but I just found out my uncle Beaver is dying (just got the text). HE WAS AMAZING! A hunter/fisher/comedian, he always made me smile and laugh. “Hey hey hey” was sort of his catch phrase and I’ll never forget him.

Be The River

Hello my fellow rocks, looking tough and acting hard. Just wanted to post about a concept I’ve been kicking around in the old lump of neurons that is my brain. I’ve lately had trouble doing things I used to love (say reading for example). I think it’s because compared to competitive gaming everything else is a lower dopaminergic “fixx” (this sort of relates to a few other recent posts, but no, I will not bash terrible Medium articles giving no evidence or wisdom). What I do want to express is this: change happens gradually, and it’s not our abilities that really define us, it’s our choices (that’s a bastardization of a Dumbledore quote, I know this because Joe used to keep a series of quotes on the wall and that was one that stuck out in my mind). So in essence I’m not sure it’s “everything in moderation” (I hate that saying, it’s like, “would you like some CRACK COCAINE?” “why yes sir, everything in moderation, I’ll just take the tiny pipe”).

I would say the true test is to identify those things that you WANT to change, that you know would be GOOD to change (for you and for others around you), and just do THE BARE MINIMUM (at least at first). It’s like that song below, “one thing leads to another” in that if you want to do something (for me, let’s say reading). I’ve been having great success with this, essentially I’m not committed to reading a book, but reading A PAGE of a book, sure, why not. Hence the title, rivers seem weak or not very effective as agents of change, but they are always moving, they are always “working,” it’s our human failing that we can’t see the long-term effects of things. Change happens gradually and then all at once they say, but that’s not true, change is always happening and it’s only when there are moments, checkpoints or whatever, where you step back and say “damn, I have six pack abs” (now I sound like that Medium writer, let me tell you about how successful I am, not recognizing that to be “successful” you essentially have to take advantage of the hard work of others). My point before being side-tracked is that if you want six pack abs go on YouTube there are a million ways to get them! No, seriously, my point would be if that’s what you really want, do 1 SINGLE CRUNCH or PLANCHE FOR 5 SECONDS. Make that your daily routine (actually bad example because if you’re fat you could have abs but never see them because you eat crap and counteract any exercise), slowly, gradually, elevate, wear down that “rock” until it no longer stands in your way. You’ve got time, use it. STAY SOFT AND WET (play on Goggins stay hard)!

Response To Yuppie Medium Article

So I was perusing the internet, as one does, and I was wondering what’s the difference between addiction and dedication. In a previous post I sort of got into dopamine/serotonin neurotransmitters and also how if you do something enough you go from pleasure to pain. I was thinking “if dedication is doing something after motivation runs out, to the point where it may be painful but it’s just a habit that you’ll do anyway, how is that different from addiction?” Instead of a thoughtful or clinical answer I first saw a link to “Dedication is in relation to the deity; consecrate whereas addiction is bad or evil” (I didn’t click that link). The 3 or 4th link down was this…

 

https://medium.com/@cherylcadelinelee/addiction-dedication-11408e813b04

 

So to be honest I didn’t read this whole article, just the first few paragraphs, but even then. This author, predictably, is “addicted” to…guess what? WORK! Wow, such a painful addiction to work. The next line read something like “for example, I’ve written this post in 5 cafes in 3 different countries” I can almost hear a “tee hee” afterwards. Like “I’m such an addict, I work so hard traveling around and writing Medium articles in a cafe.” I’m writing this post, from my apartment, 5 AM because my son happened to sleep over his grandparents. Now I have it good, I’m not complaining, except about people like this. I stopped reading the post and clicked on her profile only to find

So Suddenly, I see. (This is what success looks like.)

Wow, shocking, another article/not-so-humble brag about herself! Is this the best page rank (or whatever Google uses similar to it) has to offer?!

Hearthstone Classic Meta 3

So I’ve identified some counters to the top classes and here’s a rough outline below.

Deck, Counter
Miracle Rogue, Freeze Mage

Druid, Control Warrior

Control Warrior, Miracle Rogue

Zoolock, Control Warrior

Freeze Mage, Control Warrior

Druid, Aggro Mage

 

I will say that there’s a difference between hard counter and soft counter. Control warrior is good against lots of decks but it’s not a hard counter to anything (maybe Freeze Mage). Control warrior, druid, and miracle are consistent against almost deck which is why the ladder is full of them.

 

In addition to this I’m still working on solving the game but so far focusing on different things to improve matchups (check out my github just google patruff and check out the hearthbreaker repo). Current ideas I have are to profile top players and capture their deck lists. Also I record my replays and I was thinking of making a “Mulligan quiz” phone app that would give several different ACTUAL matchups and then based on statistics of games dictate which cards should be kept. Like give the person information about the matchup, your deck, and then ask them how to mulligan.

Hearthstone Classic Meta (Phase 2)

So I originally posted about this a while ago but the current meta decks are…Druid (midrange/ramp), Warlock (Zoo and SOMETIMES Handlock), Mage (Aggro but some Freeze), Shaman (revive 7/8 with taunt or aggro), Control Warrior, and Miracle rogue. Hunters are rare, Aggro Paladin happens but rarely, Priests are almost nonexistant.

 

I can write more another time, but also wanted to let people know that I’m trying to solve Hearthstone. I’m working it out now on my github https://github.com/patruff/hearthbreaker