How To Be a Successful Gambler

Don’t gamble. Congratulations, you are more successful than most gamblers. Now onto the meat after you have had your vegetables.


IF you gamble the best way to do it is 1) spend a lot more time planning than playing, 2) practice in situations where there are no “real” stakes so that when you are playing at a higher level you at least have some built-in, reflexive pathways in your brain built up, 3) only play when at your best (rested, not stressed, not burnt out, 100% fresh), 4) SET A LIMIT (as in, if I win this much I’ll walk away, or if I lose this much I’ll walk away), without this you can win big but then play sloppy and lose big too, 5) know the math (you can be expected value positive, as in, if I could make this move an infinite number of times I would be making money) and recognize that luck is a huge factor.


With 5 as long as you know you made the right move you can walk away proud, vice versa if you win off of bad odds (you should feel ashamed :P). I would write more but I just found out my uncle Beaver is dying (just got the text). HE WAS AMAZING! A hunter/fisher/comedian, he always made me smile and laugh. “Hey hey hey” was sort of his catch phrase and I’ll never forget him.

Be The River

Hello my fellow rocks, looking tough and acting hard. Just wanted to post about a concept I’ve been kicking around in the old lump of neurons that is my brain. I’ve lately had trouble doing things I used to love (say reading for example). I think it’s because compared to competitive gaming everything else is a lower dopaminergic “fixx” (this sort of relates to a few other recent posts, but no, I will not bash terrible Medium articles giving no evidence or wisdom). What I do want to express is this: change happens gradually, and it’s not our abilities that really define us, it’s our choices (that’s a bastardization of a Dumbledore quote, I know this because Joe used to keep a series of quotes on the wall and that was one that stuck out in my mind). So in essence I’m not sure it’s “everything in moderation” (I hate that saying, it’s like, “would you like some CRACK COCAINE?” “why yes sir, everything in moderation, I’ll just take the tiny pipe”).

I would say the true test is to identify those things that you WANT to change, that you know would be GOOD to change (for you and for others around you), and just do THE BARE MINIMUM (at least at first). It’s like that song below, “one thing leads to another” in that if you want to do something (for me, let’s say reading). I’ve been having great success with this, essentially I’m not committed to reading a book, but reading A PAGE of a book, sure, why not. Hence the title, rivers seem weak or not very effective as agents of change, but they are always moving, they are always “working,” it’s our human failing that we can’t see the long-term effects of things. Change happens gradually and then all at once they say, but that’s not true, change is always happening and it’s only when there are moments, checkpoints or whatever, where you step back and say “damn, I have six pack abs” (now I sound like that Medium writer, let me tell you about how successful I am, not recognizing that to be “successful” you essentially have to take advantage of the hard work of others). My point before being side-tracked is that if you want six pack abs go on YouTube there are a million ways to get them! No, seriously, my point would be if that’s what you really want, do 1 SINGLE CRUNCH or PLANCHE FOR 5 SECONDS. Make that your daily routine (actually bad example because if you’re fat you could have abs but never see them because you eat crap and counteract any exercise), slowly, gradually, elevate, wear down that “rock” until it no longer stands in your way. You’ve got time, use it. STAY SOFT AND WET (play on Goggins stay hard)!

Response To Yuppie Medium Article

So I was perusing the internet, as one does, and I was wondering what’s the difference between addiction and dedication. In a previous post I sort of got into dopamine/serotonin neurotransmitters and also how if you do something enough you go from pleasure to pain. I was thinking “if dedication is doing something after motivation runs out, to the point where it may be painful but it’s just a habit that you’ll do anyway, how is that different from addiction?” Instead of a thoughtful or clinical answer I first saw a link to “Dedication is in relation to the deity; consecrate whereas addiction is bad or evil” (I didn’t click that link). The 3 or 4th link down was this…


So to be honest I didn’t read this whole article, just the first few paragraphs, but even then. This author, predictably, is “addicted” to…guess what? WORK! Wow, such a painful addiction to work. The next line read something like “for example, I’ve written this post in 5 cafes in 3 different countries” I can almost hear a “tee hee” afterwards. Like “I’m such an addict, I work so hard traveling around and writing Medium articles in a cafe.” I’m writing this post, from my apartment, 5 AM because my son happened to sleep over his grandparents. Now I have it good, I’m not complaining, except about people like this. I stopped reading the post and clicked on her profile only to find

So Suddenly, I see. (This is what success looks like.)

Wow, shocking, another article/not-so-humble brag about herself! Is this the best page rank (or whatever Google uses similar to it) has to offer?!

Hearthstone Classic Meta 3

So I’ve identified some counters to the top classes and here’s a rough outline below.

Deck, Counter
Miracle Rogue, Freeze Mage

Druid, Control Warrior

Control Warrior, Miracle Rogue

Zoolock, Control Warrior

Freeze Mage, Control Warrior

Druid, Aggro Mage


I will say that there’s a difference between hard counter and soft counter. Control warrior is good against lots of decks but it’s not a hard counter to anything (maybe Freeze Mage). Control warrior, druid, and miracle are consistent against almost deck which is why the ladder is full of them.


In addition to this I’m still working on solving the game but so far focusing on different things to improve matchups (check out my github just google patruff and check out the hearthbreaker repo). Current ideas I have are to profile top players and capture their deck lists. Also I record my replays and I was thinking of making a “Mulligan quiz” phone app that would give several different ACTUAL matchups and then based on statistics of games dictate which cards should be kept. Like give the person information about the matchup, your deck, and then ask them how to mulligan.

Hearthstone Classic Meta (Phase 2)

So I originally posted about this a while ago but the current meta decks are…Druid (midrange/ramp), Warlock (Zoo and SOMETIMES Handlock), Mage (Aggro but some Freeze), Shaman (revive 7/8 with taunt or aggro), Control Warrior, and Miracle rogue. Hunters are rare, Aggro Paladin happens but rarely, Priests are almost nonexistant.


I can write more another time, but also wanted to let people know that I’m trying to solve Hearthstone. I’m working it out now on my github

Pat’s Search For Meaning

What is meaning?

From the Greek, logos, meaning is well…it means…CIRCULAR DEPENDENCY! Infinite loop! OROBORUS!

Ouroboros - Wikipedia


So yeah, I can’t define meaning. The reason being that it is subjective. There is no OBJECTIVE MEANING, although I think we could come close in terms of a RATIONAL MEANING, basically, if we decided that a rational goal for all humanity would be to minimize suffering. This is difficult though because we’d disagree on how to get there, there would be a lot of “WELL WE NEED TO DO THIS BECAUSE X IS SUFFERING” in the short-term V. “WELL IF WE DON’T ALLOW X TO SUFFER NOW, OUR GRANDKIDS Y (of which there are a multitude more than X) WILL SUFFER.”

Logic and reason have shortcomings. Things can be rational or meaningful when limited by time and/or objective. So to go back to the suffering example, in terms of time we could eliminate all suffering if we gave everyone a single dose of heroine. Everyone in the world takes the hit at the same time. Boom, no human on the planet is suffering. On the other hand, we might want that suffering to not return so soon (to everyone on the planet who now may/may not be addicted to heroine). So is it “Minimize suffering over an infinite timespan to the lowest reasonable level?” It reminds me of working with radiation. It’s like, you know you’re being exposed, but you do everything possible to minimize that exposure (and one of the factors is time obviously).

A.L.A.R.A. As Low As Reasonably Achievable Sign NHE-27557

So yes, we have reached a point where we can say that there IS potentially a universal meaning, but it is almost certainly going to be disputed. The idea is that if you think about the future and try to make predictions you’ll often be wrong. To AGAIN go back to the example of suffering. Let’s say we do everything to optimize to limit human suffering, we sacrifice so much in our generation (maybe we all live sustainably?). But then we get his by an asteroid. Nice try! Or the simulation ends (the robots are like, these humans did a good job, let’s just end the simulation here).


So starting over, as far as meaning goes, I think it’s related to dopamine and human motivational drives. We were made to explore, look for food, have sex, and die. THAT is our meaning. To search for something higher is icing on the evolutionary cake. So if you want meaning in your life you first need to recognize that you are an anomaly. You’re a sentient being, a (hopefully) being capable of reason/logic, a being that can think about the future and existence and all of these notions being the base “hedonistic” drives of your species.

So pleasure/pain will exist and there’s an interesting dynamic there but that’s a post for a later time. I think the takeaway from this post is that you will never find TRUE MEANING because it’s subjective and differs for each person. We will all suffer, but suffering is bearable if we have a reason or a meaning.

Actually I’ll get into the dopamine connection now. I think the whole “suffer for the right reason” or “have something to live for” (whether that’s work, your kids, a creative pursuit, etc.) or “a worthy goal.” That’s basically giving yourself a dopamine hit (a low one, but still, enough not to be depressed or not to suffer AS MUCH). So goals/rewards/exploration are all rewarded with dopamine (not the rewards as much as the pursuit of them). The other side of the dopamine coin is that if you have too much of it, you’ll be in PAIN if you don’t reach the same levels. So for instance if you play a ton of video games (not going to name names) and then try to interact in the real world, you’ll find it boring, you might get depressed, etc. People say to substitute video games (or other addictions) with something that will also give you dopamine hits (albeit smaller ones). So you could set a goal of cleaning the living room. While cleaning it you might be slightly less depressed than if you were just sitting around feeling bored or bad for yourself.

The problem with this is that our world is HYPERREAL as was postulated in Simulation and Simulacrum. The idea is that our world is become more and more abstract representations of reality. To the point where the abstraction is more “real” than reality. Take a flight simulator for example. In it you can experience crashing a plane in thousands of different ways. In terms of experiencing a plane crash, you’re getting a normally non-existent event OVER AND OVER AND OVER. Same with porn. You’re getting a hyper-sexualized version of sex that probably won’t ever occur in your lifetime. The problem is that your brain doesn’t know it’s a simulation (or rather, it does, but there are other parts that still light up).

Anyway, my point is that if you do something too much, dopamine switches from pleasure to pain. Like, you are craving more of something, but not because it’s “fun” or “pleasurable” but because you will get pain if you don’t. So your positive reinforcement loop becomes a negative reinforcement loop.


I have to stop here, but moral is don’t do anything too much (because you’ll go from pleasure to pain) and also there is no MEANING OF LIFE, it’s YOUR meaning for life. Basically, life will show you your meaning. You KNOW what you SHOULD be doing.

Hearthstone Classic Meta (guess)

Classic (card set) - Hearthstone Wiki

So Hearthstone Classic is releasing this Thursday. It will contain the first 240 cards Hearthstone ever released, back in 2014. I’m guessing this version of the game is coming out for two reasons, the first being that a lot of people are leaving the game due to it’s huge LUCK factor (random number generator (RNG) winning games) that was much less of a factor in the early days and the 2nd reason is that World of Warcraft Classic has been so popular.


Now, original Hearthstone had 9 classes. I’m going to list them out along with popular deck archetypes. Then I’ll run through counters for each individual deck.

Shaman – Midrange

Huge minions copied and revive buff

Counters: “Kill minion” cards, silence

Rogue – Miracle and Tempo

Miracle more common

Counters: Kill all minions on board, multiple taunt minions, stay above 24 health

Mage – Freeze Mage (rarely there was also an Aggro Mage with Mana Wyrm)

Frost bolt, Pyro, Alex

Counters: Kill minion card (for Alexstraza), generally healing cards to reup after they burn you down (they usually can’t burn more than 15 damage)

Paladin – Midrange Paladin

Healing, Tyrion Fordring

Counters: No direct damage and deck is weak on minions, clear the board constantly and you win

Warlock – Zoolock and Handlock

Zoolock Counter: board clears, healing, taunt

Handlock Counter: Sap (if rogue), lots of cheap minions (assuming Handlock doesn’t draw board clears)

Hunter – Face and Midrange (Sunshine)

Buzzard + Unleash Hounds

Face Counter: big taunt minions (these can be debuffed though), healing healing healing, board clears, DO NOT PLAY TOO MANY MINIONS (to avoid combo)

Druid – Ramp and Token

Savage Roar, lots of damage

Counter: Stay above 18 health, taunt minions, trade favorably

Priest – Control Priest

Control Priest counter: Zoolock (the priest has a lot of cards to deal with BIG minions, not a load of small ones) or Face Hunter


Hearthstone simulation

I’m actively in the process of simulating Hearthstone in order to create an AI I can play against when I have time (which is almost never). So far I can play a game against a PC, create decks, and hopefully soon add new cards. Stay tuned.


2021_3_6 update

This might be an ongoing post. Basically despite having 0 time (fulltime job + 10 month old baby = 0 time) I’m trying to embark into streaming AT THE SAME TIME I’m working on simulating and “solving” Hearthstone.

Molten Giant - Hearthstone Wiki

This is going to be a relevant card since I’m going to start with Handlock (a variant of Warlock (one of the characters you can play in Hearthstone)). I think it’s representative of my life. The more pain/damage you take, the easier it becomes to summon the courage to do something epic (8/8 stats is pretty good in Hearthstone).



Memento Explained

So I happened across a great video on YouTube explaining the movie the way I’ve always seen it.

On the topic of NOT removing tattoos (I had originally written this to go after the 2nd paragraph but I reversed it, sort of like the movie Memento! Actually it just makes that opening “topic” weird, sorry) I think it’s interesting that the “Remember Sammy Jankis” tattoo is Leonard trying to “come clean” with himself. Basically saying “I’m a con man” like the REAL Sammy Jankis (according to Teddy, I know not the most reliable source but why would he lie about that he has nothing to gain from that). The fact that even Leonard trying to come clean is subverted (by Leonard himself) is interesting. Like, he does remember Sammy Jankis, he remembers that he’s a con/fraud/liar but instead he just “forgets” (again, just himself lying to himself). I’d like to comment more but watch the video if you’re interested.


Also on the same video, someone commented this (see below). And I think this comment adds to my views on the movie in that I always thought that Leonard with the “I have done it” tattoo was made in his pursuit of revenge and that’s actually what made his wife leave him (in addition to the insulin incident). But actually the comment makes more sense in that I THINK he has the other tattoos in that image meaning that he’s already being doing this revenge thing for a while (also it’s a lot harder to remove a tattoo). If you look into this comment it actually could mean that Leonard finally admits the truth to himself (happy ending!).


Wait, this is my( theory)of ,the real ending,maybe right maybe wrong in my opinion after he killed teddy he immediately went to the tattoo place and tattooed on his left chest that read “i have done it” and made a memory that (his mission was complete)and it signified that his wife managed to live from a coma, why ? This is the explanation when the scene of Lenny and Natalia together facing the mirror, which means that (at that time) Lenny’s wife is considered dead, Natalia said what tattoo will you fill on your left chest? Lenny said : later when I was with him, moved to the (ending scene) where Lenny driving the car to the tattoo place to tattoo the teddy car plate, there is a faint scene where Lenny and his wife fall asleep together and on his left chest is written “i have done it” which means the tattoo was made after the search for his wife’s killer and that means his wife still alive. if you have any questions, we can disscused.